Monetary Policy and Agricultural Production in Mexico, 2001-2024: An Analysis from the Austrian Theory of the Economic Cycle
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33110/inceptum.v21i41.536Keywords:
Oferta monetaria, Teoría Austriaca del Ciclo Económico, Tasas de interés, Producción agrícola, Análisis econométricoAbstract
This research analyzes the impact of monetary policy on agricultural production in Mexico during the period 2001–2024, from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). The study arises from the scarcity of literature linking monetary variables with the Mexican agricultural sector under this theoretical framework. The main hypothesis states that variations in the money supply influence agricultural production through the deviation between the market interest rate and the natural rate. Time series econometrics is employed using variables such as M2, 28-day CETES, 10-year M Bonds, and agricultural production indicators, applying stationarity tests, Granger causality, Almon distributed lag models, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The results show mixed but consistent evidence with the ABCT: a causal relationship is identified between the money supply and the yield curve slope, with lagged effects on agricultural production, consistent with the hypothesis of malinvestments induced by distorted monetary signals.
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